Ways to earn / Other

Prediction markets and sports betting: why we say do not start

Do not start checked 2026-10-08

Promises steady income from betting on event outcomes (Polymarket, Kalshi, sports betting) using models, tips or AI bots.

What the evidence says about money

Do not start. A Roosevelt Institute analysis (7 Jul 2026) of more than 400 million Kalshi trades estimates ordinary retail traders lost USD 583.5 million from launch through 15 May 2026 (USD 371.6 million on sports), and reports Kalshi reportedly acknowledged losers outnumber winners by nearly 3 to 1. An on-chain analysis reported by The Defiant (6 Apr 2026) found 84.1% of 2.5 million Polymarket wallets in the red and only 2% having ever made over USD 1,000.

How sure are we: Backed by a secondary source such as press or a review site.

What can go wrong

• Most participants lose and losses can exceed what you can afford
• Gambling-related harm and debt, especially for households short of money
• Legal status of prediction markets and online betting differs by country and was not researched here; unlicensed operators are common
• Sellers of 'betting bots' and tips groups are a typical fraud pattern
• Winnings may be taxable

How it hooks people

Small stakes that feel like skill. The house or the market keeps the edge.

Age, region and other limits

Minimum age 18. Licensing, age and tax rules differ by country; local gambling rules were not researched.

Sources

• Roosevelt Institute (7 Jul 2026): estimated USD 583.5 million net losses by retail traders (market takers) on Kalshi from July 2021 to 15 May 2026, USD 371.6 million on sports; based on more than 400 million trades from public Dune tables; Kalshi reportedly acknowledged losing users outnumber winners nearly 3 to 1. [S]
• The Defiant (6 Apr 2026) reporting an independent on-chain analysis: 84.1% of Polymarket traders are in the red; only 2% of 2.5 million wallets analysed ever made over USD 1,000; methodology details not given. [S]
• PYMNTS (28 Apr 2026) reporting a Bloomberg analysis of about 2 million Polymarket wallets active since early 2025: roughly half had gains or losses under USD 10 and most of those small accounts lost money; no exact percentage given. [S]
• NBER Working Paper 33108 (Nov 2024), Baker, Balthrop, Johnson, Kotter, Pisciotta: after legalisation online sports betting reduces household savings by crowding out positive-expected-value investments, with harm concentrated in financially constrained households. [P]

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